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Fantasy Impact of December Weather
(page 2)

In order to test this out, I used a simulation of a playoff matches. In my simulation, both teams have the same talent but one has its QB, WRs and TEs playing indoors and its RBs playing in a very cold stadium while the other team has all its players playing in an average stadium. The team with the favorable weather will win this matchup about 60% of the time. That example is slightly extreme but you can still see that it is a worthy advantage. To put this in perspective, the advantage of having a QB playing indoors versus a QB playing in a very cold stadium is the equivalent of that same QB playing the 23rd ranked pass defense versus one playing the 2nd ranked pass defense in 2008. You cannot apply the strength of schedule advantage for the upcoming season because you cannot predict who the good and bad defenses will be in 2009 (see strength of schedule article) but you do know who will be playing indoors or in a very cold stadium in December. It is not a great advantage but it is still an interesting one that could help you decide between two players in a draft.

The following chart shows in what group of stadiums each team will be playing its games in weeks 14 through 16:

If you like a quarterback such as Aaron Rodgers you should not stay away from him simply because he has to play in one cold and two very cold stadiums in weeks 14 to 16. However, if you do draft Rodgers, you may want to consider a guy like Matt Ryan as his backup since two of his games will be indoors during the fantasy football playoffs.

The best example of this was in 2007 when most owners who drafted Tom Brady made it into their league’s playoffs. However, a large snowstorm hit in the northern part of the United States and caused many of the week 15 games to be played in snow and heavy winds. Tom Brady had only 140 yards passing with no touchdowns in that game and cost many people a fantasy football championship. If you knew a snowstorm like this was going to hit before the season started, you still would have drafted Tom Brady but you might have drafted a backup QB who played his final few games indoors or in the south.

There are so many factors that will affect who you select and who you stay away from in your fantasy drafts and this is just another one of them. It is not the most important but it is one to keep in mind if you are hesitating between a few players.

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