Rookie Wide Receivers
(page 2)
Another interesting thing I noticed by looking at
rookie wide receivers is that wide receivers drafted early in the
NFL Draft performed worse compared to their average draft position
than ones drafted later. Since 2000, there have been 15 wide
receivers drafted in the first 12 picks of the first round and only
two of them performed better than their average draft position in
fantasy drafts. The following table compares rookie wide receivers
drafted in the first 12 picks of the NFL Draft with non-rookie wide
receivers who ranked between 20th and 57th in average draft
position:
|
|
Average Draft Position |
Average Rank |
% Improve |
|
Rookies (top
12 in NFL Draft) |
38.1 |
61.3 |
13.3% |
|
Non-Rookies
(20 to 57) |
38.2 |
52.4 |
38.2% |
Even though the sample for rookies is quite
small, there is an obvious difference between these two groups of
players. This seems to indicate that rookie wide receivers drafted
in the first 12 picks of the NFL Draft are generally very overrated
by fantasy managers. My explanation for this would be that wide
receiver is a very complicated position and those who adjust the
quickest to the NFL game are not necessarily the most talented.
Moreover, the statistics of a wide receiver often depend on the team
they play for. Wide receivers drafted in the top 12 picks are
usually on bad teams which is something that fantasy managers may
not take into account as much as they should. In the past few years,
Calvin Johnson, Braylon Edwards, Reggie Williams, Troy Williamson,
Ted Ginn and Mike Williams are all receivers who disappointed in
their rookie season.
Now that I have shown that rookie wide receivers
drafted in the top 12 picks are overvalued, let’s see how the
statistics change for the group of wide receivers that were not
drafted in the top 12. The following table compares the rookie wide
receivers not drafted in the first 12 picks of the NFL Draft with
non-rookie wide receivers that ranked between 52nd and 85th in
average draft position:
|
|
Average Draft Position |
Average Rank |
% Improve |
|
Rookies (non
top 12 in NFL Draft) |
68.5 |
75.2 |
47.3% |
|
Non-Rookies
(52 to 85) |
68.7 |
73.1 |
50.6% |
As you can see, this data is once again
in favor of non-rookie wide receivers but the difference is only
3.3%. This is a pretty small difference especially considering the
small size of our data and also that rookie receivers actually have
a small edge if we only look at the ones drafted between the 13th
pick and the end of the second round.
The data presented in this article makes it quite evident that you
should stay away from rookie wide receivers drafted in the top 12
picks. You will want to consider rookie wide receivers that were
drafted later in the NFL Draft but they are still a risk. We believe
it is much easier to predict performance of receivers that have been
in the league for at least one or two years than taking a guess on a
rookie receiver. One thing is for sure though; do not worry about
drafting Darrius Heyward-Bey or Michael Crabtree in 2009 because
they are almost certain to be overvalued in fantasy drafts.
|
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