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Strength of Schedule - Summary

Draft Recommendation: Defenses are so unpredictable that 2009 strength of schedule has very little meaning and you are much better off looking at which player had inflated or deflated stats in 2008 because of an easier or harder schedule.

Strength of schedule is one of the many factors that fantasy football players often include in their player rankings to try and get an edge over their opponents. One of the problems with it however is that there is so much parity in the NFL that a bad run defense can become one of the best ones in the following year.

The goal was to determine how much a team’s statistics from a given season impact that team’s statistics for the next season. Our analysis shows us that it is very difficult to predict how defenses will perform in the upcoming season and only 20% to 30% of the previous year’s statistics help us predict next year’s statistics. For those who doubt this, here is an interesting statistic: of the ten defenses that allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks in 2007, only three remained in the bottom ten in 2008 and three were in the top ten.

Based on those statistics, the difference is less than 5% between the teams with the easiest schedules and the teams with the hardest schedules. For example the Minnesota Vikings have the easiest schedule for running backs but we can expect the defenses they will face to allow only 2.4% more fantasy points to running backs than the league average. This means that if you project Adrian Peterson to have 300 fantasy points, his easier 2009 schedule would mean you can expect him to have 307 fantasy points. As you can see, it makes absolutely no sense to look at strength of schedule for 2009 based on last year’s defensive statistics as the difference is minimal.

There is one factor that is rarely looked at and that I believe is much more important than projected strength of schedule and that is the previous season’s strength of schedule. To go back to our example of Adrian Peterson, instead of giving him a boost because 12 of his first 15 opponents in 2009 were below average in run defense in 2008, would it not make more sense to look at the opponents he faced in 2008 and see if his stats were inflated because of an easier schedule?

The difference is quite remarkable if we look at 2008 strength of schedule. For example, Chad Pennington had 264 fantasy points in 2008 but he faced defenses that allow 6.6% more points than the league average. On the other hand, Joe Flacco had 223 fantasy points but he faced defenses that allow 8% less than the league average. Had they faced the same opponents, Pennington and Flacco probably would have ended the season with a very similar number of fantasy points or at the very least a much smaller difference than 41 points.

Our numbers show much easier or harder a team’s strength of schedule is compared to the year before but by giving much more importance to the 2008 strength of schedule since we don’t know which defenses will be good or bad in 2009. To see our 2009 chart by position, click here.

Many sites including FFToolbox publish a strength of schedule chart by position. They say it is an “important arsenal of serious fantasy football drafters” and that “you’ll be able to make the hard decisions between two players.” If you look at their chart, you’ll see that the Baltimore Ravens have the third toughest schedule for quarterbacks which might keep you away from Joe Flacco. However, if you look at our chart, you’ll see that last year he also had the third toughest schedule against the pass and he still performed remarkably well. It is a fact that last year he had a tough schedule, this year no one knows how tough his schedule will be and it is very likely to be easier than the third toughest. Based on historical projections, his schedule should be 7.8% easier this season than last season; a valid reason to move Flacco up in your rankings, not stay away from him as you might have done by looking at a regular strength of schedule chart.

This chart will allow you to adjust player statistics and compare players much more accurately which should give you an edge over other fantasy football players in your draft, especially those who give a lot of importance to 2009 strength of schedule.

See the complete analysis